Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025
-
The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate
of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and Case-Shiller house
prices...
10 Weekend Reads
-
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Colombia Tolima Los Brasiles
Peaberry Organic coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our
longer-f...
The America-First Era Begins
-
This post The America-First Era Begins appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
The American Empire is transitioning into something new entirely...
The post Th...
A slightly belated celebration of President’s Day
-
“America is rock and roll.” — Alfred Howard Did some of you find it hard to
feel the love for President’s Day this year? Well, remember: the reason it
exis...
The Genteel Martyrdom of Israel Haters
-
Melbourne-based supporters of Hamas, the Palestinian jihadist organization,
have engaged in puzzling acts of aggression since Oct. 7, 2023. Why did
they br...
A Few Words On Healthcare
-
I haven’t published anything on here in a long, long time.. Thought it
would be fun to start up again. I wanted to give some stream of
consciousness though...
Happy New Year!
-
2025 Year of the Golden Age "old world, gold economy, as viewed thru modern
eyes" or "way to move from US$ without war". -Another (5/5/98) As you can
see, ...
Understanding the Modern Monetary System – Updated!
-
It’s been over 10 years since I published Understanding the Modern Monetary
System, one of the most widely read papers in the SSRN research database. I
pub...
A Few Quick Announcements
-
By James As I wrote a couple of years ago, I don’t post here anymore. I
just have a couple of updates for people who subscribe and may be
interested in my ...
FTX and an old blog post
-
A long time ago I wrote a blog post about rehypothecation with brokers. It
is - unsurprisingly - relevant again.
In some sense crypto provides fast-track...
Blog Post Title
-
What goes into a blog post? Helpful, industry-specific content that: 1)
gives readers a useful takeaway, and 2) shows you’re an industry expert.
Use your...
Goodbye to Credit Writedowns
-
Good morning everyone, I have some exciting — and also – sad news to tell
you today. First, I am going to Bloomberg as a Senior Editor. And I am
going to...
The Covid-19 Dominoes Fall: The World Is Insolvent
-
To understand why the financial dominoes toppled by the Covid-19 pandemic
lead to global insolvency, let’s start with a household example. The point
of thi...
New Hedge Fund Newsletter Just Released
-
The new Q4 issue of our hedge fund newsletter is now available. It reveals
the latest portfolios of 25 top hedge funds and also features summaries of
2 st...
The gulag that France has become
-
*Here’s a powerful article from Robert Spencer, posted at Front Page
Magazine, that will, more than any other article I’ve read lately, provide
you with...
Do Higher Wages Mean Higher Standards of Living?
-
Editor's note: We have updated macroblog's location on our website,
although archival posts will remain at their original location. Readers who
use RSS sho...
Big D Has Your Rivalries Right Here
-
Editor's Note--Well that wasn't how we like it last week. 2-4. But this
week is rivalry week in the college where you throw out the records and
teams play ...
What’s the best type of healthcare system?
-
If we’re going to improve our healthcare system, it’s worth looking closely
at the experiences of other rich democratic countries. There are two
principal ...
French Rescue Four Hostages Lose Two Soldiers
-
Viva Liberty! French commandos rescued four foreign hostages including two
French citizens from a militant group in Burkina Faso, France's military
said on...
The Foremost Problem Is Moving to Stormfront
-
Good news. This blog is moving to Stormfront. The transition might take
several months. Current content will remain in place for historical
purposes for as...
Memories of a Friend
-
It’s been 1 year since Oscar died, and I’ve been reluctant to write an
obituary for him because I didn’t think I could put into […]
The post Memories of ...
Daily Readings 01-27-2019
-
IS BIG TECH MERGING WITH BIG BROTHER? KINDA LOOKS LIKE IT A FRIEND OF mine,
who runs a large television production company in the car-mad city of Los
Angel...
Since the U. S Knew Syria Had Chemical Weapons
-
And since the U. S. knew where the chemical weapons were being made
And since the U. S. knew where the chemical weapons were being stored
*Why didn't the U...
The Market Ticker - The Pattern of The Market
-
*Looks awfully similar to 2008.*
*Rotation back and forth, with most of the gains coming in a handful of big
names with big stories -- but no earnings to...
An inside peek at Silicon Valley for media leaders
-
In recent years, I have conducted media-and-technology study tours in New
York, London and Silicon Valley for high-level publishing executives. This
year, ...
The End is Nigh
-
Dear Reader,
It is over five years since I wrote the last published piece for this blog.
A lot has happened during that time: the unprecedented rioting in ...
New Book from John Weeks!
-
My colleague John Weeks has just published a very relevant book laying bare
the logical and practical problems with economic policies informed by
mainstrea...
Gold Stocks - All Perspective Has Been Lost
-
Many recent published commentaries appear to have lost perspective on the
now much-hated Gold stock sector. The fact of the matter is that,
technically, t...
Feeling sorry for the rats.
-
'*What's in the box*?'
-David Mills, Se7en
'*And the eye-in the-sky is watching us all.*'
-Ace Rothstein, Casino
'*To be modern only means to fill new f...
Twitter Digest: 2013-06-09
-
Given that I block NSA & PRISM tweets, was entertaining tuning into twitter
& trying to figure why everyone was on about Lord Snowdon -> Turned on GoT
toni...
College Graduates Are The New Debt Slaves
-
With the average cost of attending college in America at $120,000, a family
of four should expect their children’s college to cost more than a home.
Yet...
Gates of Vienna Has Moved
-
[image: Time to go!]After being taken down twice by Blogger within a single
week, we got the message:
*It’s Time To Go.*
Gates of Vienna has moved to...
Marc Faber: Germany Should Have Left The Euro
-
On Bloomberg:
Remember: nothing has been fixed...
“If you put one or 100 sick banks in a union, it does not change the fact
that they're sick. In my vi...
Moved Over
-
I’ve been blogging away over at my new blog at Next New Deal, come join me
over there! Here’s the new rss feed. I might post here once in a great
while, m...
The Automatic Earth on the move
-
Purchase our new 2014 set of video downloads at TheAutomaticEarth.com At
around 6 PM EST, Sunday, February 5, 2012, The Automatic Earth has moved to
its ne...
Occupy Wall Street - Marine vs 30 Cops
-
Speaking of the police. Here is a link to a video of a soldier - in uniform
- protesting the treatment of demonstrators by the police.
http://perezhilton....
We've Moved!
-
If you're reading this, it means you've been following the
http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com address. We switched over to
WordPress, and from now on...
The Inchoate Rage Beneath our Global Cities
-
“London’s riots prompted commentators on the right to blame hooliganism,
while those on the left cited frustrations with the UK’s faltering economy
and fis...
Natural History of Fire & Flood Cycles
-
In reference to the analogies presented in my previous article, please have
a look at this article: Natural History of Fire & Flood Cycles While
reading it...
Why non-profit execs are not paid too much
-
Anger over executive salaries is fast turning into a witch hunt. We’ve no
longer just down on financiers, but also on state employees, on teachers,
on just...
1930s Vs Today: Lots To Worry About
-
I have written an article about the similarities between now and the great
depression, which I will post at a later date. However, for now, I just
noticed ...
A devoted student of why nations and empires succeed or fail. In general, I believe in the following:
Sparta - not Athens;
Strength over Weakness;
National Competition and Supremacy in a dangerous world;
Here's a story I've held off on posting until I had all the facts.
To my readers, I apologize for not posting sooner but I wanted to be accurate above all else before I went to press.
What you are about to read should shock the daylights out of you. It puts the tales of New York's Tammany Hall to shame and makes Chicago's Democratic machine look like the rankest amateurs.
And if that upsets you, it should - because this is a tale of EPIC Public Corruption unlike any I am aware of in recent history - a sad tale for the local residents involved, but a cautionary one for the rest of us.
It is a salient example of what happens when a community ceases to be vigilant about its governance. And just because this story involves local government, it makes no difference. The same thing can happen at the state or national level, far more easily than we might imagine.
Here's the story:
It begins in the city of Maywood, California last May, when, in the preparation of its annual budget for the 2011 fiscal year, the city received a notice from its liability insurers that its premium for liability coverage of its employees (including the Police Dept.) would triple, to approximately $1.5 million per year.
Now Maywood is a close-in suburb of Los Angeles, but let me assure you, Beverly Hills it is not. It is a city of about 40,000 people, 90% Hispanic, 60% foreign born, with a per capita income of about $36,000 per year - about half that of Los Angeles County in general. Which means that they're not exactly flush with cash.
So after first considering merely doing away with their police department, which was facing several lawsuits over "police abuse", they came up with an even better idea - to do away with the notion of city employees entirely - and outsource everything.
First, they outsourced law enforcement to the L.A. County Sheriff's Department, saving approximately $ 4 million a year in the process. Next came Public Works, Parks and Recreation, even parking enforcement - all services for which they found eager private sector bidders, saving even more money.
The last thing the Maywood City Council did was to contract out the administration of the city itself to the neighboring city of Bell, at a monthly payment of $50,000 - about two-thirds of the previous expense.
So far, so good - Happy citizens and taxpayers in Maywood.
But here's where it gets interesting. The Los Angeles Times, no friend of outsourcing or the Private Sector in general, decided to investigate and compare Bell and Maywood - two adjoining cities with similar demographics, to see what lessons could be learned.
And what they found blew the roof off.
The City Manager of Bell, one Robert Rizzo, was being paid $ 787,000 annually - almost twice as much as President Obama and three times the salary of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Police Chief Randy Adams was paid $ $457,000 per year - or twice the salary of L.A. Police Chief Charlie Beck. And assistant City Manager Angela Spaccia was paid $ 376,000 per year - more than any other municipal executive (except for Rizzo) in the State of California. And it goes on from there.
The seven Bell City council members, who are part time and paid $700 per month, also are eligible to sit on up to sixteen different city Boards and Commissions - the City Recycling Authority, the City Planning Commission, and so forth. In return, they can earn up to $1,000 per month additional for each different board they sit on.
But most of these boards are "ghost" authorities - in fact, last year most of them met for only One Minute Per Month - this according to California Public Records Act disclosures which the Times uncovered. And six of the seven councilmen occupied all these positions, making their total compensation over $100,000 annually for part-time work.
Even so, the Times managed to uncover one honest man - newly appointed Councilman Lorenzo Velez, who earned only his $700 monthly for attending City Council meetings.
The reason he wasn't also on the gravy train? He replaced a councilman who resigned after unspecified accusations of wrongdoing, but who after resigning was given a full-time city job at Bell's food bank and kept his membership on six of the "ghost" commissions - this despite an ordinance that specifies only sitting council members can be on these entities.
The upshot? The Bell City Council meeting yesterday was jammed with irate voters demanding the resignation of Mayor Oscar Hernandez ( a part-timer making $150,000 per year), Rizzo, Adams, Spaccia, and the entire council except for Velez. A group has formed to circulate petitions for a recall election. Others are preparing to file suit demanding an audit of city finances, which hasn't been done for the last two years despite California law to the contrary. And there's still more. It appears that three of the part-time council members own businesses whose principal function is contracting with the City for "unspecified services".
Both the Los Angeles County Attorney and the State Attorney General's office are investigating, and late yesterday came word that the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of California will open an investigation for violations of the Federal Public Corruption Act.
For the unfortunate residents of Bell, help can't come soon enough. And it's even more galling that the corrupt council members and city executives appeared to be taking advantage of the "Patron" culture which the mostly Hispanic and foreign-born residents grew up in.
In the Hispanic culture, the "Patron" or political leader, is expected to be corrupt, and to lavishly line his pockets in return for shouldering the great responsibilities of governance. In return, he is also expected to disburse cash, favors, and considerations ("Las Mordidas") to deserving members of the community.
But there wasn't very much flowing downward to the ordinary people, it seems - just to the regular employees and their unions, who regularly turned out at election time to keep the incumbents in office.
Regardless of what ultimately happens, (and I expect that some Bell city councilmen and managers will ultimately be guests at the Crossbar Hotel or Club Fed), this should be a warning. Where Government and Tax Dollars are concerned, voters won't get what they expect - only what they inspect.
And the solution to problems like this? Not recall elections and criminal investigations, but pitchforks and torches, tar and feathers, and trees and boiled rope.
Sen Jon Kyl (R-AZ) finally detailed the reasons for his (and the rest of his party's) unrelenting opposition to the extension of emergency unemployment benefits.
To him, they are a "necessary evil", and thus they need to be fully offset by "spending reductions" elsewhere.
At the same time, Sen. Kyl also went on to explain that "tax cuts", unlike unemployment benefits, don't need to be "offset" by spending cuts elsewhere, because "they pay for themselves".
And the economist he cites as proof? That eminent economist and Senator from Kentucky, Mitch McConnell.
Now I don't blame Sen. Kyl. As a loyal, obedient member of the Senate Republican caucus, he has to speak the lines he's told to, even if they don't square with the facts.
And the fact is, that of $787 Billion in stimulus spending, $450 Billion was tax cuts skewed toward corporations and the wealthy. This was supposed to "stimulate" new investment and hiring. And we can all see how that turned out. And to The Thinking Nationalist, it's a very, very tired and overplayed theme.
It's nothing more than "trickle down" economics, dressed up in fancy rhetoric to stimulate class envy and resentment. And I can understand this.
If you're a small businessman, or self-employed, and You aren't seeing any benefit from all of the "stimulating" activity going on, and you aren't benefiting from this miraculous economic recovery, why shouldn't you have a tax cut?
After all, the unemployed are (or were) getting Theirs, the Too-Big-To-Fail banks got Theirs, and as long as they agreed to keep outsourcing and offshoring jobs, the Big Corporations got Theirs....
Where's Yours?
I feel your pain.
But, to the GOP and their fellow travelers among the "Blue Dog" Democrats, you don't matter.
You aren't lining up to stuff dollars in lobbyists' pockets to hand to the GOP and the entrenched politicos of the Democrat Party . You aren't working the corridors of Capitol Hill, with lobbyists in tow, with pre-written bills or amendments to bills, pressing your case directly, where it matters.
And if you're going to do that, don't forget the manila envelopes stuffed with large amounts in small denominations for your favorite Congresscritters.
After all, in the Halls of Power, money talks and you-know-what walks.
And don't even think about mainstream Democrats.
If you aren't an Ivy-educated, certified Intellectual, you just don't count. But don't blame yourself if you're not at that exalted level.
After all, mainstream "liberal" Democrats, including the president, care more about winning the "intellectual" battle more than anything else.
Their idea of a "win" is a critically acclaimed Op-Ed in the Times or the Washington Post. Or a blog post on Huffington. Or a guest appearance on the PBS News Hour.
After all, those audiences understand all the "nuances" and the "irony" involved in trying to represent the "progressive" agenda. And they also understand that this has absolutely nothing to do with representing the voters back home.
After all, Everyone who is Anyone knows that they (meaning you) just don't get it. That means you don't count. And don't be thinking "Tea Party". The "Tea Party" doesn't shock anyone anymore. There's no scare there.
Just a bunch of mindless rural rubes ready to vote Republican, to their own detriment.
So if you think your voice isn't being heard in Washington (and you can be assured it isn't), Mr. or Ms. Independent Voter, you need to do something different. You need to think outside the box.
And that means voting Third Party.
Now, don't get me wrong. If you're dissatisfied with the way things are going, and your incumbent isn't getting the job done for you, go ahead and Vote For The Other Guy, no matter what, as long as there's a credible difference between the two.
But in some places that may not be enough. Some states are so Blue or Red that winning the Primary means a ceremonial walk-over in the General Election.
Or, there's so little difference between the two candidates that either could just as well be a member of the others' party.
And that's just not good enough.
So if that applies to your state, vote Third Party.
If you're Conservative, vote Libertarian instead of Republican. If you are liberal or "progressive", vote Green, Socialist or even Communist.
And if enough of us do this, we're going to have a great mixture in Congress and in the state legislatures as well.
I'd love to see some Republican leader bust his gut trying to get a "compromise vote" out of some died-in-the-wool Libertarian. And I think the Democrats would go nuts if they had to "coalesce" with Green, Socialist, or Communist legislators.
Who knows - out of all that, you might get Change that some of us might believe in ... for a change.
The current economic malaise has brought all kinds of folks out of the woodwork.
From out-and-out Marxists ( a la David Harvey) to the Tea Party types, the extremes on both sides seem to be dominating the debate these days. What they have in common, I'm afraid, is being long on volume and short on solutions.
But nothing has been quite as remarkable as the steady march of the GOP towards its "libertarian" roots.
In this vein, then, here is a "graphic" description of the "24 Types" of "GOP supporters and libertarians" - the better so that we can identify them should they try to convert us to their way of thinking.
It was almost a year ago that I set out to create The Thinking Nationalist - a small web journal of political and economic opinion that focused on current events from a "centrist" American perspective.
Unlike many other "bloggers", I did not look in the first year to go all-out with a firmly biased outlook, either left or right, on every issue that crossed my writing desk. Rather, I decided that this first year would be given over to honing my blogging craft, and that my original pieces would try to be more explanatory than exhortatory, preferring wherever possible to shed light on an issue rather than unwarranted heat.
Further, when the occasion required, I decided to also include several pieces cross-posted (with attribution) from other blogs or sources. And in return, I have had the distinct pleasure of being quoted by name in a few other blogs, many of which are older than this one and more widely read.
I would also at this point like to take the time to thank the other authors whose blogs are listed on the left-hand side of the page, many of whom took the time to offer advice, suggestions, topic ideas, or links to additional information. And in the same spirit, I would also like to thank the readers who circulated my posts like Samizdat to others.
To all of you, both readers and fellow bloggers. I thank you.
In these trying times, I believe that bloggers are providing necessary, important and free public services of both information and persuasion - far more so than the paid mainstream media, who are more comfortable sucking up to the powerful and influential than standing up to them in the name of the public.
Time was when the intrepid journalist was focused on getting "the story" - having checked the facts and corroborated the evidence, he published - and let the chips fall where they may. Naturally, such an approach never sits well with "Powers That Be" wherever they are, as these worthies have often more to lose from embarrassment or ridicule than the actual discovery of malfeasance.
Thus journalists, under the pressure of a constant news cycle to generate air time or column inches, often morph into the lap dogs of their favorite sources. Nothing so warms a mainstream media person's heart but that to know that for him or her, the velvet rope will always be lifted and access will always be granted when deadlines or air time loom near.
With rare exception, the blogger faces little such pressure. Permanently on the outside, occasionally granted access as part of the "Alternative Media" pool, he is free to write and opinionate to his heart's content.
And in so doing, he not only sheds light on important issues but brings some necessary heat as well.
It is fitting, therefore, that on the 234th Anniversary of the Nation's founding, a Nation founded in no small part by the exertions of free men armed with free speech and a free press, that we take time to honor those who dare call the powerful to account and the influential to explanation. Let us always remember that our liberties are more secure in the hands of the man with a pen and a voice than in the hands of the man with a gun.
If Thomas Paine, the author of "Common Sense" were alive today. he would be a blogger - and his columns would still be passed hand to hand and read as eagerly as in the days of old.
And given the mess that is today "our body politic", he would have plenty to write about and a lot to say - and almost none of it would be complimentary to those who style themselves "Our Leaders".
In that vein, then, we are going to alter the approach of The Thinking Nationalist over the coming year to take a harder, more partisan stance on the issues than before - and the principle that will under line our approach is Nationalism.
"Nationalism" in the current sense, has gotten an undeservedly bad rap from authors of both the left and the right. "Liberals" view "Nationalism" as a code word for racial and ethnic prejudice, while "Conservatives" view "Nationalism" as a quaint and backward obstacle in their abstract pursuit of "Free Markets".
Both are wrong. "Liberals", while pretending solicitude for the common man, fail completely to understand the anger and distress felt by citizens about the unlawful invasion of millions upon millions of alien foreigners into our midst, who share not our language, culture, history or traditions but, with the support of "liberals" demand not only legal status but unquestioned acceptance. The "conservative" on the other hand, would announce "open borders" the better that wages and working conditions might fall to some abysmal 3rd world level, the better to profit the "Ownership Class".
And "Immigration" is only one area where both mainstream liberals and conservatives are just plain wrong. "Nationalism" gives us the reasons why.
The same is true on any number of issues - economics, trade, jobs, industrial policy, education, social welfare, foreign policy and national defense. In their single-minded pursuit of abstract "truth" as they see it, both left and right have failed a nation desperately seeking answers and a way forward in a pitiless and hostile world.
"Nationalism" provides that way forward.
Over the coming weeks, I will detail "A Modern Nationalist Manifesto" that, hopefully, will provoke discussion and debate. And, we will keep up our perspective on current events and people as always.
These are interesting, indeed historic times we are living in. But whether they are tragedy or blessing is now, more than ever, up to us.
When Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism suggests we read something, I usually take notice.
Yesterday, she directed her readers to an article by Andy Grove (one of the founders of Intel), calling for drastic changes in American industrial policy, specifically toward startups, innovation, scaling, and manufacturing job creation.
The piece is long, detailed, and worth reading in full, but the central point is this: An economy that innovates prolifically but consistently exports its jobs to lower cost overseas locations will over time not only lose its capacity for mass production but also its very ability to innovate.
So compelling and important is this piece that I am going to present it here substantially in its entirety:
Dr. Grove:
" Recently, an acquaintance at the next table at a Palo Alto , California restaurant introduced me to his companions: three young venture capitalists from China. They explained, with visible excitement, that they were touring promising companies in Silicon Valley. I've lived in the Valley a long time, and usually when I see that the region has become such a draw for global investment, I feel a little proud.
" Not this time. I left the restaurant unsettled. Something didn't add up. Bay Area unemployment is even higher than the 9.7 per cent national average. Clearly, the great Silicon Valley innovation machine hasn't been creating many jobs of late - unless you count Asia, where American technology companies have been creating jobs like mad for years.
" The underlying problem isn't simply lower Asian costs. It's our own misplaced faith in the power of American startups to create U.S. jobs. Americans love the idea of the guys in the garage inventing something that changes the world. New YorkTimes columnist Thomas L. Friedman recently encapsulated this view in a piece entitled "Startups, Not Bailouts" . His argument: Let tired old companies that do commodity manufacturing die if they have to. If Washington really wants to create jobs, he wrote, it should back startups.
Mythical Moment
" Friedman is wrong. Startups are a wonderful thing, but they cannot by themselves increase tech employment. Equally important is what comes after that mythical moment of creation in the garage, as technology goes from prototype to mass production. This is the phase where companies scale up. They work out design details, figure out how to make things affordably, and hire people by the thousands. Scaling is hard work but necessary to make innovation matter.
" The scaling process is no longer happening in the U.S. And as long as that's the case, plowing capital into young companies that build their factories elsewhere will continue to yield a bad return in terms of American jobs.
" Scaling used to work well in Silicon Valley. Entrepreneurs came up with an invention. Investors gave them money to build their business. If the founders and their investors were lucky, the company grew and had an initial public offering, which brought in money that financed further growth.
Intel Startup
" I am fortunate to have lived through one such example. In 1968 two well-known inventors and their investor friends anted up $ 3 million to start Intel Corp., making memory chips for the computer industry. From the beginning, we had to figure out how to make our chips in volume. We had to build factories, hire, train, and retain employees; establish relationships with suppliers; and sort out a million other things before Intel could become a billion-dollar company. Three years later it went public and grew to become one of the biggest technology companies in the world. By 1980, which was about ten years after our IPO, about 13,000 people worked for Intel in the U.S.
"Not far from Intel's headquarters in Santa Clara, California, other companies developed. Tandem Computers went through a similar process, then Sun Microsystems, Inc., then Cisco Systems Inc., Netscape Communications Corp., and on and on. Some companies died along the way or were absorbed by others, but each survivor added to the complex technological ecosystem that came to be called Silicon Valley.
" As time passed, wages and health care costs rose in the U.S., and China opened up. American companies discovered that they could have their manufacturing and even their engineering done cheaper overseas. When they did so, margins improved. Management was happy, and so were stockholders. Growth continued, even more profitably. But the job machine sputtered.
U.S. Versus China
" Today, manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is about 166,000 - lower than it was before the first personal computer, the MITS Altair 2800, was assembled in 1975. Meanwhile, a very effective computer manufacturing industry has emerged in Asia, employing about 1.5 million workers - factory workers, engineers, and managers.
" The largest of these companies is Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., also known as Foxconn. The company has grown at an astounding rate, first in Taiwan and then in China. Its revenue last year was $ 62 billion, larger than Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Dell Inc. or Intel. Foxconn employs more than 800,000 people, more than the combined worldwide head count of Apple, Dell, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Intel and Sony Corp.
10 -to- 1 Ratio
" Until a recent spate of suicides at Foxconn's complex in Shenzhen, China, few people had ever heard of the company. But most know the products it makes - computers for Dell and H-P, Nokia cellphones, Microsoft XBox 360 consoles, Intel motherboards, and countless other familiar gadgets. Some 250,000 Foxconn employees in Southern China produce all of Apple's products. Apple, meanwhile, has about 25,000 employees in the U.S. - that means for every Apple worker in the U.S. there are 10 people in China working on iPods, iMacs, and iPhones. The same roughly 10-to-1 relationship holds for Dell, disk-drive maker Seagate Technology, and other U.S. tech companies.
" You could say, as many do, that shipping jobs overseas is no big deal because the high-value work - and much of the profits - remain in the U.S. That may well be so. But what kind of a society are we going to have if it consists of a few highly paid people doing high-value-added work - and masses of unemployed?
" Since the early days of Silicon Valley, the money invested in companies has increased dramatically, only to produce fewer jobs. Simply put, the U.S. has become wildly inefficient at creating American tech jobs. We may be less aware of this growing inefficiency, however, because our history of creating jobs over the long term - the last fifty years - has been spectacular, masking our greater and greater spending to create each position.
Tragic Mistake
" Should we wait and not act on the basis of early indicators? I think that would be a tragic mistake because the only chance we have to reverse this deterioration is if we act early and decisively.
"Already the decline has been marked. It may be measured by way of a simple calculation ; the employment cost-effectiveness of a company. First, take the initial investment plus the investment during a company's IPO. Then, divide that by the number of employees working in that company ten years later. For Intel, this worked out to be about $650 per job - $3,600 adjusted for inflation. National Semiconductor Corp., another chip company, was even more efficient at about $2,000 per job.
" Making the same calculations for a number of Silicon Valley companies shows that the cost creating U.S. jobs grew from a few thousand dollars per position in the early years to $100,000 today. The obvious reason: companies simply hire fewer people as more and more work is done by outside companies, usually in Asia.
Alternative Energy
" The job-machine breakdown isn't just in computers. Consider alternative energy, an industry where there is plenty of innovation. Photovoltaics, for example, are a U.S. invention. Their use in home-energy applications was also pioneered by the U.S.
" Last year, I decided to do my bit for energy conservation and decided to equip my house with solar power. My wife and I talked to four local solar firms. As part of our due diligence, I checked where they get their photovoltaic panels - the key part of the system. All of the panels they use come from China. A Silicon Valley company sells equipment used to make photo-active films - and they ship close to ten times more machines to China than the U.S. - and the gap is growing. Not surprisingly, estimated U.S. employment in the making of photovoltaic films, panels, and the equipment to produce them is about 10,000 - a few per cent of total worldwide employment.
Advanced Batteries.
" There's more at stake than just exported jobs. With some technologies, both scaling and innovation take place overseas. Such is the case with advanced batteries. It has taken years and many false starts, but finally we are about to witness mass-produced electric cars and trucks. They all rely on lithium-ion batteries. What microprocessors are to computing, batteries are to electric vehicles. Unlike microprocessors, the U.S. share of lithium-ion battery production is tiny.
" That's a problem. A new industry needs an effective ecosystem in which technology knowhow accumulates, experience builds upon experience, and close relationships develop between supplier, manufacturer, and customer. The U.S. lost its lead in batteries 30 years ago when it stopped making consumer electronic devices. Whoever made batteries then gained the exposure and relationships needed to learn to supply batteries for the more demanding Laptop PC market, and after that for the more demanding automotive market.
"U.S. companies didn't participate in the first phase and consequently weren't in the running for all that followed. I doubt that they will ever catch up.
Job Creation
" Scaling isn't easy. The investments required are much higher than in the invention phase. And funds need to be committed early, when not much is known about the potential market. Another example from Intel: The investment to build a silicon plant in the 1970's was a few million dollars. By the early 1990's, the costs of the factories that would be able to produce the new Pentium chips in volume rose to several billion dollars. The decision to build these plants needed to be made years before we knew whether the Pentium chip would work or whether the market would be interested in it.
"Lessons we learned from previous missteps helped us. Years earlier, when Intel's business consisted of making memory chips, we hesitated to add manufacturing capacity, not sure of the market demand in years to come. Our Japanese competitors didn't hesitate: they built the plants. When the demand for memory chips exploded, the Japanese roared into the U.S. market and Intel began its decline as a memory-chip supplier.
Intel Experience.
" Though steeled by that experience, I remember how afraid I was as I asked the Intel directors for authorization to spend billions of dollars for factories to make a product that didn't exist for a market we couldn't size. Fortunately,they gave their OK even as they gulped. The bet paid off.
" My point isn't that Intel was brilliant. The company was founded at a time when it was easier to scale domestically. For one thing, China wasn't yet open for business. More importantly, the U.S. hadn't yet forgotten that scaling was crucial to its economic future.
" How could the U.S. have forgotten? I believe that the answer has to do with a general undervaluing of manufacturing --- the idea that as long as "Knowledge Work" stays in the U.S., it doesn't matter what happens to factory jobs. It's not just newspaper columnists who spread this idea - but politicians and academics as well.
Off shore Production.
" Consider this passage by Princeton economist Alan S. Blinder:
"The TV manufacturing industry really started here, and at one point employed many workers. But as TV sets became 'just a commodity' the production moved offshore to locations with much lower wages. And nowadays the number of TV sets manufactured in the United States is zero. A Failure? No --- a success! "
" I disagree. Not only did we lose an untold number of jobs, we broke the chain of experience that is so important in technological evolution. As happened with batteries, abandoning today's "commodity" manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry.
" Our fundamental economic beliefs, which we have elevated from an observation to an unquestioned truism, is that the free market is the best economic system - the freer, the better. Our generation has seen the decisive victory of free-market principles over planned economies. So we stick with this belief, largely oblivious to emerging evidence that while free markets beat planned economies, there may be room for a modification that is even better.
No. 1 Objective.
" Such evidence stares at us from the performance of several Asian economies in the past decades. These countries seem to understand that Job Creation (italics mine - TTN) must be the number one objective of state economic policy. The government plays a strategic role in setting the priorities and arraying the forces necessary to achieve that goal.
" The rapid development of the Asian economies provides numerous illustrations. In a thorough study of the development of East Asia, Robert Wade of the London School of Economics found that these economies turned in precedent-shattering performances in the 1970's and 1980's because of government involvement in the targeting the growth of manufacturing industries.
"Consider the "Golden Projects" - a series of digital initiatives in the late 1980's and 1990's. Beijing was convinced of the importance of electronic networks - used for transactions, communications, and co-ordination - in enabling job creation, especially in the less developed parts of the country. Consequently, the Golden Projects enjoyed priority funding. In time, they contributed to the country's rapid development of China's information infrastructure and the country's economic growth.
Job-Centric Economy
" How do we turn such Asian experience into intelligent action here and now? Long-term, we need a job-centric economic theory - and job-centric political leadership - to guide our plans and actions. In the meantime, consider some basic thoughts from a onetime factory guy.
" Silicon Valley is a community with a strong tradition of engineering, and engineers are a peculiar breed. They are eager to solve whatever problems they encounter. If profit margins are the problem, we go to work on margins, with exquisite focus. Each company, ruggedly individualistic, does its best to expand efficiently and improve its own profitability. However, our pursuit of our individual businesses, which often involves transferring a great deal of manufacturing and engineering out of the country, has hindered our ability bring innovations to scale here at home.
" Without scaling, we don't just lose jobs - we lose our hold on new technologies. Losing our ability to scale means losing our ability to innovate.
" A story goes around that an engineer was to be executed by guillotine. The guillotine was stuck, and tradition demanded that if the blade didn't drop, the condemned man was set free. Before this could happen, the engineer pointed with excitement to a rusty pulley, and told the executioner to apply some oil there. Off went his head.
"An example: Five years ago a friend of mine joined a large VC firm as a partner. His responsibility was to ensure that every startup they funded had a "China Strategy" - meaning , a plan to ship as many jobs as they possibly could to China. He was going around with an oil can, applying drops to the guillotine in case it was stuck. We should put away our oil cans. Every VC firm should have a partner in charge of every startup's "U.S. Strategy".
Financial Incentives
" The first task is to rebuild our industrial commons. We should develop a system of financial incentives. Levy an extra tax on the product of offshored labor. If the result is a trade war, treat it like any other war - fight to win. Keep that money separate. Deposit it in the coffers of what we might call the Scaling Bank of the U.S. and make these sums available to companies that will scale their American operations. Such a system would be a daily reminder that while pursuing our company goals, all of us in business have a responsibility to maintain the industrial base on which we depend and the society whose adaptability - and stability - we may have taken for granted.
" I fled Hungary as a young man to come to the U.S. in 1956. Growing up in the Soviet bloc, I witnessed firsthand the perils of both government overreach and a stratified population. Most Americans aren't aware that there was a time when tanks and cavalry were massed on Pennsylvania Avenue to chase away the unemployed. It was 1932; thousands of jobless veterans were demonstrating outside the White House. Soldiers with live ammunition and fixed bayonets moved in, herding them away from the White House. In America!
" Unemployment is corrosive. If what I'm suggesting is protectionist, so be it. Yet the imperative for change is real, and the choice is simple.
"If we wish to remain a leading economy, we change on our own, or change will continue to be forced upon us. "
(Andy Grove is a senior adviser to Intel Corp. and was Intel Chairman and CEO from 1987 to 2005)
Every so often, something comes along in the blogosphere that reaches out and grabs you to such an extent that you just can't put it down.
And the short video lecture below by anthropologist and "socioeconomist" David Harvey is one of those.
For those of you who haven't heard of Professor Harvey before, he is Distinguished Professor of Social Anthropology at the Graduate College of the City University of New York. He has further made news as a leading theorist in the emerging discipline of "Socioeconomics" - that is, that economic events can be explained as much as a consequence of social and anthropological norms as by mathematical descriptions of "rational" behavior.
But, what makes his lecture fun to listen to is the unique animation provided by the British Royal Society for Animation that accompanies it.
Oh, and by the way, I need to warn you - Dr. Harvey is a committed Marxist.
But if that doesn't bother you, I think you'll find that his brief, 11- minute explanation of "The Crisis of Capitalism" to be both cogent and comprehensive. And even though The Thinking Nationalist is a firm believer in Capitalism and Free Markets, I have yet to hear a better short explanation of "What Happened To Us And Why" than this short piece.