Daniel Kahneman has died
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Daniel Kahneman, who was, along with Elinor Ostrom, one of the very few
non-economists to win the Economics Nobel award, has died aged 90. There
are lots o...
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*Well done analysis...recommended viewing: In this episode – maritime
historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner
– discu...
On Corporate America's Pension Windfall
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Marion Halftermeyer of Bloomberg reports Kodak’s pension windfall points to
$137 billion opportunity:
Inside Eastman Kodak Co., the once-iconic camera ma...
Thank God the Bridge Collapsed!
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This post Thank God the Bridge Collapsed! appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
Let's Blow All the Bridges
The post Thank God the Bridge Collapsed! appeared...
Public Service Announcement
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There's a new link in the side bar, to BullionStar. Most of you are
probably familiar with BullionStar as a gold seller in Singapore, as well
as host to bl...
Hijab
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"The subject of sitr or covering is far more nuanced than we have been led
to believe. The spectrum of opinion is far more vast, tolerant, and
permissive t...
Understanding the Modern Monetary System – Updated!
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It’s been over 10 years since I published Understanding the Modern Monetary
System, one of the most widely read papers in the SSRN research database. I
pub...
A Few Quick Announcements
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By James As I wrote a couple of years ago, I don’t post here anymore. I
just have a couple of updates for people who subscribe and may be
interested in my ...
Our message on COVID-19
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From day one, we had advocated a strong response to the COVID-19
coronavirus. That included shutting down the border, creating
quarantines/waiting periods ...
Putin’s ‘Winter War’ on Ukraine
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[image: Putin's 'Winter War' on Ukraine By Patrick Buchanan]In the final
days of this lame-duck Congress, before control of the House passes to
Republicans...
FTX and an old blog post
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A long time ago I wrote a blog post about rehypothecation with brokers. It
is - unsurprisingly - relevant again.
In some sense crypto provides fast-track...
Blog Post Title
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What goes into a blog post? Helpful, industry-specific content that: 1)
gives readers a useful takeaway, and 2) shows you’re an industry expert.
Use your...
Goodbye to Credit Writedowns
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Good morning everyone, I have some exciting — and also – sad news to tell
you today. First, I am going Bloomberg as a Senior Editor. And I am going
to ...
A Christmas unlike any other
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*As if this incredible stolen election with its profound consequences for
the USA and the rest of the world, were not enough to depress me to the
poin...
The Covid-19 Dominoes Fall: The World Is Insolvent
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To understand why the financial dominoes toppled by the Covid-19 pandemic
lead to global insolvency, let’s start with a household example. The point
of thi...
Do Higher Wages Mean Higher Standards of Living?
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Editor's note: We have updated macroblog's location on our website,
although archival posts will remain at their original location. Readers who
use RSS sho...
Big D Has Your Rivalries Right Here
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Editor's Note--Well that wasn't how we like it last week. 2-4. But this
week is rivalry week in the college where you throw out the records and
teams play ...
French Rescue Four Hostages Lose Two Soldiers
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Viva Liberty! French commandos rescued four foreign hostages including two
French citizens from a militant group in Burkina Faso, France's military
said on...
The Foremost Problem Is Moving to Stormfront
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Good news. This blog is moving to Stormfront. The transition might take
several months. Current content will remain in place for historical
purposes for as...
Memories of a Friend
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It’s been 1 year since Oscar died, and I’ve been reluctant to write an
obituary for him because I didn’t think I could put into […]
The post Memories of ...
Daily Readings 01-27-2019
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IS BIG TECH MERGING WITH BIG BROTHER? KINDA LOOKS LIKE IT A FRIEND OF mine,
who runs a large television production company in the car-mad city of Los
Angel...
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CasuallyEasygoing... email me at chicagoray44@gmail.com
*this is my old old blog.. quit it long ago. but keep it here to show how
prescient I was about Ob...
The Market Ticker - The Pattern of The Market
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*Looks awfully similar to 2008.*
*Rotation back and forth, with most of the gains coming in a handful of big
names with big stories -- but no earnings to...
An inside peek at Silicon Valley for media leaders
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In recent years, I have conducted media-and-technology study tours in New
York, London and Silicon Valley for high-level publishing executives. This
year, ...
The End is Nigh
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Dear Reader,
It is over five years since I wrote the last published piece for this blog.
A lot has happened during that time: the unprecedented rioting in ...
New Book from John Weeks!
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My colleague John Weeks has just published a very relevant book laying bare
the logical and practical problems with economic policies informed by
mainstrea...
Gold Stocks - All Perspective Has Been Lost
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Many recent published commentaries appear to have lost perspective on the
now much-hated Gold stock sector. The fact of the matter is that,
technically, t...
Twitter Digest: 2013-06-09
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Given that I block NSA & PRISM tweets, was entertaining tuning into twitter
& trying to figure why everyone was on about Lord Snowdon -> Turned on GoT
toni...
College Graduates Are The New Debt Slaves
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With the average cost of attending college in America at $120,000, a family
of four should expect their children’s college to cost more than a home.
Yet...
Gates of Vienna Has Moved
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[image: Time to go!]After being taken down twice by Blogger within a single
week, we got the message:
*It’s Time To Go.*
Gates of Vienna has moved to...
Marc Faber: Germany Should Have Left The Euro
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On Bloomberg:
Remember: nothing has been fixed...
“If you put one or 100 sick banks in a union, it does not change the fact
that they're sick. In my vie...
Moved Over
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I’ve been blogging away over at my new blog at Next New Deal, come join me
over there! Here’s the new rss feed. I might post here once in a great
while, m...
The Automatic Earth on the move
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Purchase our new 2014 set of video downloads at TheAutomaticEarth.com At
around 6 PM EST, Sunday, February 5, 2012, The Automatic Earth has moved to
its ne...
Occupy Wall Street - Marine vs 30 Cops
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Speaking of the police. Here is a link to a video of a soldier - in uniform
- protesting the treatment of demonstrators by the police.
http://perezhilton....
We've Moved!
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If you're reading this, it means you've been following the
http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com address. We switched over to
WordPress, and from now on...
The Inchoate Rage Beneath our Global Cities
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“London’s riots prompted commentators on the right to blame hooliganism,
while those on the left cited frustrations with the UK’s faltering economy
and fis...
Is heavy taxation bad for the economy?
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Taxes reduce the payoff to entrepreneurship, investment, and work effort.
If taxation is too heavy, these disincentives will weaken a nation’s
economy. But...
Natural History of Fire & Flood Cycles
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In reference to the analogies presented in my previous article, please have
a look at this article: Natural History of Fire & Flood Cycles While
reading it...
Why non-profit execs are not paid too much
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Anger over executive salaries is fast turning into a witch hunt. We’ve no
longer just down on financiers, but also on state employees, on teachers,
on just...
1930s Vs Today: Lots To Worry About
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I have written an article about the similarities between now and the great
depression, which I will post at a later date. However, for now, I just
noticed ...
A devoted student of why nations and empires succeed or fail. In general, I believe in the following:
Sparta - not Athens;
Strength over Weakness;
National Competition and Supremacy in a dangerous world;
A couple of really great videos (Courtesy of Infectious Greed and YouTube) which really depict the crash as it unfolded.
The first is one of shameless shill and all-around investment Assclown Jim Cramer from CNBC.
How this guy (along with Dick Bove and Steve LIESman) manages to keep his job I don't know. Suffice it to say if you take Cramer's advice on anything at all you deserve what you have coming. Here's Jimbo:
The next is some "stocktrader guy" giving a "webinar" on day trading.
He's pretty full of himself at the beginning, apparently referring to a previous session where he was saying the market was overbought.
But as the market begins its freefall, he goes complete Dick Vitale or Walter Sobchak with self-congratulation.
Take a look:
Lessons for everyone out there:
1) Be careful about who you take trading or investment advice from. In most cases, you're better off doing it yourself if you can. If you can do your own research, and it makes sense to you, go with it. Before you invest, investigate - it's your money, therefore it's your responsibility. If you don't know how to trade or invest, take some classes and learn;
A fellow I know who has been hugely successful over the last three years didn't know anything about investments at all except that he was now laid off and had a 401(K) distribution and an IRA to tide him over.
Embittered by his treatment by Corporate America and distrustful of brokers and financial planners, he decided to do it himself - after he taught himself what he needed to know. So, he decided to get his securities license - just to acquire the knowledge he felt he needed to be successful managing his own money.
Today, as an independent proprietary trader, he's more than replaced his last full-time income and added to his trading capital besides. All this in a down market. He was one of my instructors in the trading course I just completed. And no, he's not some high-powered Harvard guy; he's the typical worker that Corporate America is busy "outsourcing" - his background is IT/Computer Science.
Moral: Learn how, do it yourself, get a comfort level, and trust your judgment;
2) If you don't understand a stock, a bond, or other security, stay away. Being still in learning mode, I stick with two basic trading models that almost anyone can understand with a five-minute explanation. I don't do options, futures or indexes - not that I don't know what they are, but I'm not yet sufficiently experienced or trained to work with them effectively.
This why Warren Buffet is so successful - you'll notice he stays away from anything that isn't traditional "plain vanilla" , that isn't superbly managed, and that he can't get at a great price.
But, you might say, doesn't he use derivatives, swaps, and other exotic things in his business? Sure he does - to protect his real positions in the real economy. Which is how they're supposed to be used. Remember, twenty years ago he bailed out a Wall Street casino - Salomon Bros - and he propped up another -The Squid - after beating them down for a below-market price and an above-market return.
As the world's second or third richest man, who got that way by taking only the most conservative of risks, I would say he knows what he's doing.
And all along, he's stayed with what he knows;
3) Trade or invest with the trend - not against it;
4) Use position sizing and risk limitations in terms of position size to apportion your portfolio. If you must use leverage, adjust your risk parameters accordingly. The more leverage (borrowed money), you use, the tighter your risk tolerance must be;
Bear in mind that Wall Street, before the crash, had extensively used leverage to expand , not reduce, the amount of risk they could take on;
5) Buy on rumor, sell on news. Buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy;
And finally, enjoy yourself - trading and investing, as a full time job, a supplement to retirement, or just as a hobby can be very rewarding.
And to my mind, reward comes in one color - Green.
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