Eye On Las Vegas - The Consumer Electronics Show

Yes, it's finally here, as it is every January.

Las Vegas' biggest extravaganza, The Consumer Electronics
Show, kicked off today and will go on through Sunday.

And this year it's bigger and better than ever - two thousand
exhibitors spread out over all three of Las Vegas's biggest
Convention Centers, and over two hundred thousand
industry insiders getting a firsthand look and comparing
notes on what will soon be coming to "An Electronics
Store Near You".

Now, if you've heard about this show and you're thinking
about coming up to Vegas to get a look, let me give you
some advice - don't.

This trade show is rigorously "insiders only" - and media
and visitor passes to this event are harder to come by
(and more eagerly sought after), than Super Bowl tickets.

And that means your technologically-challenged
correspondent was, like most of us, on the outside looking
in. But, like any good Vegas guy, I've got a card up my
sleeve.

In my case, it's The Las Vegas Insider - a Thinking
Nationalist reader who in real life is a PR maven for one
of Las Vegas' largest Casino operators. And, as part of his
job, he gets a few of these priceless ducats to the show,
and he attends himself.

So, earlier this evening, I met him for cocktails on the
Strip and got his take on some of the hot new electronic
items you'll be shopping for later this year.

Here are his top picks:

1) High-Definition flat-panel 3-D TV, and the first
true HD flat-panel computer monitors;

2) 3-D projection TV. If you've ever watched a sporting
event on TV, you haven't seen anything until you've
seen the game projected onto a tabletop with realistic 3-D
avatars of the players, along with the regular play-by-play
network broadcast . It will almost be better than being
there;

3) Fourth and Fifth-generation Smartphones, of which
Google's Android is only the beginning. Almost all of the
applications now available only for Apple's iPhone will
be available for these also. Plus, Yahoo, Google, and
many others are creating thousands of additional
applications for these devices that are truly amazing.
By this time next year, you'll be able to start your car,
open the garage door, and order your coffee from
Starbucks (among many other things), just by hitting
a few buttons on your phone's touch screen;

4) Mobile text-to-speech and speech-to-text for your car,
eliminating "texting while driving";

5) Ford's new "Mobile Wi-Fi". If you buy any late-2010
or 2011 model year Ford, whether it's a Focus or a top-of-
the-line Lincoln Navigator, your days of searching for
a Wi-Fi hot spot for your laptop are over. Simply engage
wi-fi from your car's touch screen, plug the USB adapter
into the car's port, and you've got wireless internet up
to 100 yards away from your parked car. No more
crowding the tables at Starbucks or Borders;

6) A whole new generation of e-book readers. If you
have an Amazon Kindle or a Borders Nook, you have
bought e-reader 1.0 technology. The new readers
have larger screens, full color rather than grayscale,
and can also read newspapers and magazines as well
as books (in fact, says my friend, in his opinion that
will be their biggest use). While the new e-reader
companies (Liquid Plastic, enTourage, as well as CE
giants Samsung, Toshiba and LG) do not yet have
the content libraries of market leader Amazon (who is NOT
exhibiting), that will change as content providers,
who have never been exclusive, rush to take advantage
of the latest and greatest . Prediction here: to
compete, Amazon, the market leader, will make
Kindle an application for these readers, as well as for
compatible laptops, netbooks, and other devices.

All well and good, you might say. But, to be a completely
modern e-citizen, I've got to carry a backpack full of
devices - a smartphone, a laptop, an e-reader, maybe even
a fourth generation digital assistant just to make sense of it
all. Couldn't all of these functions, which are just applications,
be combined into one lightweight, powerful, user-friendly,
wireless, internet-enabled device?

Well, your wish has been granted. Enter the slate ,
or second-generation tablet computer.

About the size of a 17" flat-panel monitor and thinner
than a smartphone, these revolutionary devices combine
a fully-functional wi-fi or wireless mobile PC,
a book and magazine reader, TV over wireless
broadband (with 150 channels including ESPN,
HBO, and all the others) Sirius/XM satellite
radio, bluetooth links to your smartphone, and
a port for your iPod or MP3 player as well. If
you're more comfortable with the layout of
a traditional PC or laptop, there are dozens
of wireless keyboards, mice and "docking stations"
to go with them. Of the major manufacturers, HP and
Dell exhibited their offerings at the show, with
shipments to begin later this year.

But the biggest news of the show is what wasn't there,
a device which is rumored to be as revolutionary
as the original PC itself. And that is Apple's iSlate,
which will have all the above capabilities plus
additional content, applications and capabilities
available nowhere else. And, like all Apple products,
it will work seamlessly with your present iPhone,
iPod, or Macbook, sharing data and applications.
It is rumored to be such a game-changer that
Steve Jobs himself decided not to take it to
CES but rather to have his own expo
devoted to iSlate and the 3rd-generation iPhone
later this year.

And all of this is good. It is a re-affirmation of
faith in what this country can do, in just one
area of technology. While it is true that most of
the manufacturing takes place in China, Japan,
Taiwan and Korea, much of the technology and almost
all of the content and applications come from the
U.S.A.

So much for this country being "past its prime"
technologically.

And what will they think of next?

According to my friend, the word in the Consumer
Electonics industry is that if you thought this year
was remarkable, just wait until next year.

I can hardly wait.

Heading Bravely Into 2010 - Changes and A Manifesto

The New Year has arrived here at The Thinking Nationalist.

The Holiday decorations have all been taken down
and put away, the leftovers from New Year's have been
cleaned up. and everyone has returned to a normal
routine, more or less.

With that in mind, I have considered and am making
a few changes to The Thinking Nationalist, many of which
were suggested by you, the readers.

To begin with, we are going to a format of more frequent
and shorter posts, to focus more on topical news items
and less on relatively abstract and cerebral topics.

To be sure, we will still cover the interplay of politics
and economics, as I believe that this will become even more
important as the economy continues to lag and the nation
heads into what may be a definitive Mid-Term election.
In this regard, I will still be commenting "pundit-style"
on issues I believe to be important. But, we will add
some "human interest" stories to the mix.

After all, "human interest" is the tie that binds us all
together; whether we are political or apolitical,
liberal or conservative.

Second, as I am based in Las Vegas, and as Las Vegas
in and of itself is a topic of wide interest, I will be covering
events here more frequently. I will have a regular
"Eye On Las Vegas" feature, in conjunction with
a contributor I will be introducing to these pages.

As this person is "connected" to the local power
structure, for the present he will have to remain
anonymous (his request). Even so, his trenchant ,
irreverent, and very original takes
on the Las Vegas scene will be sure to
entertain many of you.

Another change I will be making is is to cross-post
selected material from other blogs and websites,
especially in the economic sphere. Sites such as
Calculated Risk, The Big Picture, and Naked Capitalism are
full of useful insights on economics and finance that
will become more important as we struggle
to emerge from The Great Recession. Other well-known
blogs and columnists such as Mish Shedlock,
Brad DeLong, Ed Harrison (Credit Writedowns) and
the always readable Zero Hedge will be featured here
on a frequent basis.

One change I don't anticipate making is becoming
more "partisan". Readers both on the Left and the
Right have repeatedly asked me to come down on
one side of the fence or the other.

To be sure, much of what I've written thus far has
come down on the "moderate" or even "liberal" side
of the fence. Affordable, comprehensive, universal,
government-sponsored or government-funded Health
Care is to this writer a national must-have.

It is one of those advanced-nation hallmarks that
distinguish a First-World nation from a Third-World nation.
It is the solution that has been chosen, to a greater or lesser
degree, by almost all of our First-World allies and trading
partners. And, with the exception of a few folks at the top
of the income heap and their bought-and-paid-for lackeys
in the Congress, almost no one believes that our present
Health Care Cartel is doing a good job in terms of access,
costs, coverage, or outcomes.

That having been said, I am no friend of the Leviathan
Nanny-State, as Socialism has never delivered the goods
anywhere its been tried. Even the Chinese and Russians
think so. But that is not to conclude that the "Free-Market"
alternative has to be an ever-greater concentration of wealth
and power in the hands of unregulated and unaccountable
transnational elites.

"Elite Influence" has led directly to the financialization
of our economy, the wholesale dismantling of our productive
industrial base, and the concentration of wealth and income
in the hands of an elite, well-connected few to an extent
unprecedented in our history.

The bailout of Wall Street and the slow starvation of
Main Street, to the exclusive benefit of a corrupt
Oligarchy, threaten to make "Capitalism" and
"Free Markets" Two Bright, Shining Lies in the eyes
of the people.

Free Men interacting with each other in a system of
Free Markets and Property Rights, on a level playing field
created by The Rule of Law, have made the United States
the envy of the world. This is far too precious a heritage
to squander for the short-term benefit of a undeserving
few at the top.

Thus, this journal will continue to oppose Predatory
Plutocracy in all its forms. But, we also oppose the
Predatory State, which in the name of "equality",
would despotically reduce us to grinding poverty
and the meanest possible existence.

And the best antidote to either is the vigilance of
Free Men informing and persuading each other through
a Free Press. Whether that press is The New York Times
or The Thinking Nationalist, we serve the same function -
to let those in power know that We Are Watching You
and that we will hold you to account for both your
mistakes and your misdeeds.

As we enter 2010, therefore , I present the following
to our Political and Economic elites for their
consideration:

"The Declaration and Manifesto of The Thinking
Nationalist:

"To Our Political and Financial Elites:

"You have done little to earn our confidence,
and much to merit our suspicion. If you wish
to keep your exalted places, this must change.
And you don't want to think about the alternative.
You would not find that very pleasant to contemplate.

"You might think that this is still open to discussion,
that given your positions of great power and wealth,
we the people should know what we are up against.
That when confronted with the financial and political
power of your social class, we the people should be
reasonable and discuss the matter, on your terms.

"However, we feel that the time for our respectful
consideration of your situation has come - and gone.
Rather, it is you who need to be made aware of a few
things that just might affect the continuation of
your privileged status.

"First, there are many more of us than there are of you.
And many of us are armed. Failing to disarm the
ordinary people and heaping elitist scorn on the
Police and Military could be your fatal mistake.
And the "tipping point" is coming. You are running
out of time - and out of options.

"Your fellow citizens, whom you foolishly believe to
be of n0 consequence, are a patient and resilient people.
We have watched stoically as you have shipped our
jobs to China, India and Mexico for your private
benefit, destroying whole communities in the process.
We were patient when you decided not to enforce our
immigration laws, importing crime, poverty and
terrorism into our midst under the guises of
"multiculturalism" and "political correctness".
And we were patient when you rewarded yourselves
with bailouts and bonuses while we faced bankruptcy
and foreclosure.

"As the Declaration of Independence stated, we are
more inclined to suffer evils, while they are sufferable,
than to right things by changing the forms to which we
are accustomed. But that is now changing.
We are now slowly becoming aware of your evident
desire to reduce us, finally and absolutely, under
degradation and despotism for the financial benefit
of a private and exclusive Oligarchy.

"And whenever and wherever that happens, you get
revolutions. But this one won't look like 1776.
It will look more like France 1789 and be all the
more ghastly because of modern weapons and
technology - on both sides.

" The difference? In 1776, the elites of our nation
pledged their "lives, fortunes, and sacred honor"
in an all-out death struggle against the most
dominant financial, economic and military
power of that time. You, on the other hand,
are thinking of Swiss banks and private islands
and how quickly you can slink away if things
get rough. Like rats fleeing a sinking ship, you
will scurry away from the coming chaos and disorder
you have done so much to create.

" And that's why, if it comes to that "Struggle
both Grim and Great", we, not you, will win.
Having moved "offshore", you'll no longer have
any skin in this game. No friends, no allies, nothing -
because no one here or abroad will risk his life to
save yours. And once we've secured things here, we'll come
for you. There will be no place on Earth either you or
your money will be able to hide. You'll find that
the Intelligence and Law Enforcement services
of the Second American Republic are more relentless
than the Mossad and more pitiless than the KGB
when it comes to hunting you down. And the military?
Once freed of the quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan,
they'll eagerly put the nuclear pistol to the head of any nation
rash enough to protect you or your ill-gotten loot.

"But, you say, the Military and Law Enforcement are
on our side - and they are constitutionally bound to
protect us. And the courts and Congress will
make sure of that - just wait and see.

"You might have a point there. But, you need to realize
that the Military and Law Enforcement have changed.
The uniformed leadership of the military is more diverse
and less "elite" than at any time in our history. The same
goes for Law Enforcement. You took care of that by throwing
ROTC out of the Ivy League and by making military service
and law enforcement two of the few stable career choices left
for the working and middle classes you have fought so hard
to undermine.

"And the uniformed leadership of our military, even if
not "elite" (as in Harvard-educated), is not stupid. They
study history and politics as part of Professional Military
Education, not as a GPA-padder to get into Harvard Law.
And they know that Ancient Rome deliberately kept
its legions fighting permanent, indecisive wars on the
fringes of Empire, so that elites at home could plunder
the nation more easily. But when the money ran out,
the armies returned, the Empire collapsed, and
that was that for Rome. And they see the same thing
happening with our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"And Afghanistan is a special case. It wasn't too long ago
that the Soviet Union, beaten down militarily and financially
in Afghanistan, had to conclude a humiliating cease-fire
with the Taliban and withdraw. Two years later, the Soviet
Union ceased to exist. The reason? While its armies were
occupied elsewhere, the Soviet Nomenklatura literally
looted the country bankrupt - even more brazenly than you
looted ours. The only reason it didn't turn violent is that
Russians - unlike Americans - are used to despotism and
corruption and over the years, had developed means of
coping. And, unlike Americans, they never had a decent,
middle-class lifestyle suddenly yanked out from under
them - as you have done to so many of our people in your
pursuit of "globalization" and "emerging markets".

"No, if I were you, I wouldn't count on the Army or the
Marines to protect me if things get rough. And I wouldn't
trust the police or the FBI either. They are not of your social
class - and they don't share any of your other beliefs either.
As a general rule, they are religious, socially conservative,
and fiercely patriotic, even downright nationalistic - all
traits and beliefs that both publicly and privately you go
out of your way to disparage.

"And this "cultural divide" is something you'll need to keep
in mind when the riots and open insurrections start and you
start hollering for the 82nd Airborne to protect you in the
Hamptons or Greenwich. Indeed, you might well find that the
military has "gone over" to our side - as they are far more
likely to have family unemployed, dispossessed, or bankrupted
by your "fairy-tale finance" economy than you are. And the
police will be of no help - since many of them are losing
their jobs or having their pay and benefits cut, they'll
compare their families' situation with yours and then
decide whom to "Protect and Serve".

" Not a pretty picture, is it? But you've got escape plans, right?
The G-IV all gassed up and ready to go - but where? Dubai?
Switzerland? China? Trust me, you don't want to think
about China. After we default on our foreign debt, that'll
be the last place you'll want to go. Over there, they shoot
corrupt executives and politicians - in public, to make
sure the message gets through. Thinking about what they
might do if they got their hands on you brings joy to my
heart and a tear to my eye.

"But, if in the meantime some Patriot in this country
metes out a rough and deserved retribution to you, don't
say I didn't warn you. And I will have neither sympathy nor
compassion for you or your fellows if you get a taste
of "People's Justice". You had it coming.

" So, Elite America, you have much to think about -
and much to answer for. And you don't have a lot of time.

"Think it over and get back to me, will you?"

Predictions For 2010

It's that time of year again.

Time when we shop till we drop, attend Christmas functions
and entertain visitors, and then collapse in a heap until
New Years!

In that vein then, with the closing of the old year and the
ringing in of the New, I'm offering some "Predictions"
for the nation and the economy for 2010.

I do want to emphasize, though, that these are strictly
my own observations, with no guarantee that they will
actually happen!

In no particular order, then, here are my fearless predictions
and prognostications for 2010:

1) The Stock Market continues its steady upward climb all
through 2010, with the Dow reaching 11,500 by 3Q 2010.
The S&P 500 will remain in a range between 1100-1200,
while the NASDAQ rises above 2500, and the Russell
2000 index approaches 800-850. As funds flow out
of fixed income into equities, gold will continue to
drop to the 940-960 range, as gold investors take
profits and redeploy funds into stocks;

2) Despite the rise in the stock market, fundamentals
of the real economy remain weak, with unemployment
approaching 11% by 3Q of 2010. Capacity Utilization remains
below 70%, as increasing orders for durables and inventory
rebuilding leads to increased manufactured goods imports
from China. A second wave of mortgage foreclosures hits,
this time concentrated in the "Prime" and "Alt-A" credit
segments. Boosting the trend are an increasing number of
homeowners with good credit but "underwater" mortgages
who decide to "strategically default", further depressing
prices;

3) Commercial Real Estate loans begin to default in large
numbers, as borrowers who have remained current on
their loans can no longer re-finance due to depressed
property valuations. As many of these loans are held
by local and regional banks, the number of bank failures
in 2010 will more than double to over 300;

4) The CityCenter resort and casino development in
Las Vegas, a monument to gaudy excess and optimism,
fails to attract additional visitors to Las Vegas, instead
cannibalizing established properties up and down the Strip.
Even unheard-of deals at prime strip properties fail to
boost the visitor count. After splitting off its profitable
Macau properties, MGM Mirage files Chapter 11 in 3Q
2010, unable to keep up its debt service;

4) Despite the travails of the real economy in the
U.S., the dollar continues to strengthen as financial
problems in the Eurozone come to a head. Greece,
unable to resolve its fiscal problems as sovereign
debt approaches 100% of GDP, is saved from default
by a combined ECB-IMF intervention, with Spain and
Ireland following suit shortly thereafter. All this
leads to a flight back to the dollar, despite record-low
interest rates and continued Fed money-supply
expansion;

5) Due to a strengthening dollar and a linked yuan,
China's exports to the U.S. resume growth once again
as a recovering US economy means more orders for
China's manufacturers. A strengthening dollar also
boosts off-shoring of remaining US-based manufacturing,
and U.S. manufacturing employment falls below 10% of
total employment for the first time ever;

6) The Democrats face huge problems in the November
2010 elections, as rising unemployment and increasing
social distress puts voters in an angry mood. The
Democratic majority in the Senate falls to 53-47, as
key incumbents retire and Majority Leader Harry
Reid is defeated for re-election. Republicans, however,
fail to take over the House of Representatives as
intramural squabbling permits many previously
endangered Democrats to squeak through.
Republicans are helped, though, by a dozen or so
Conservative Democratic Representatives (mostly
in the South), who defect to the GOP. In all,
Republicans pick up thirty seats, increasing
Obama's woes and making compromise more unlikely;

7) A major TBTF U.S. bank actually fails, due to losses
in Commercial and Residential Real Estate and huge
losses in its credit card portfolio. However, because
the machinery for resolution is now in place, the bank
is quickly nationalized, broken up and sold, with
minimal impact on the general economy. In conjunction
with the Fed and Treasury, Goldman Sachs orchestrates
the entire transaction, thus cementing its position as
the U.S.'s most powerful financial institution;

8) Elin Nordegren divorces Tiger Woods, getting
a significant portion of his assets and $2m plus
per year in child support, although significantly
less than originally predicted in the celebrity press.
Tiger, seeing his financial position deteriorate, returns
to golf with a vengeance, entering 25 tournaments,
winning 13 (including two majors), and establishing
an all-time record for money winnings in a PGA season.
Golf's TV ratings explode, and endorsements come
flooding back, making Tiger once again the world's
highest-paid athlete;

9) Sarah Palin, with a huge windfall from "Going Rogue"
and lucrative speaking engagements booked all year,
decides not to run for President in 2012. However,
her continued popularity leads The Fox Network to
sign her to her own daily talk show. Her show becomes
a huge hit, becoming the new "Oprah" for an increasingly
disaffected Middle Class;

10) The continuing drift in the economy leads to several
new "Third-Party" political movements, uniting disaffected
populists with independents and libertarians. Despite
differing ideologies and beliefs, many of these movements
come together to challenge ballot-access laws in many states,
which give a virtual monopoly to the two major parties.
Early efforts focus around building a "unity" 3rd-party ticket of
Ron Paul and Alan Grayson for 2012;


MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!

We'll be back with more in January......


The Thinking Nationalist.

The Copenhagen Climate Follies

Mercifully, the Copenhagen Climate Follies have finally concluded.

After two years of painstaking negotiations, the
Copenhagen Summit - billed as the last, best chance for
the world's governments to finally get a Grip On Global Warming -
ended in farce, with plenty of grandstanding and finger-pointing
to go around.

Just by getting a look at the scene you could tell what was coming.

Those world leaders who didn't arrive by Government VIP
aircraft did so on the private jets of some of the world's
most powerful corporations, from there to be shuttled to
and fro by limousine, carefully kept away from the press
and the public.

But, "the public" was also in Copenhagen in force -
protesting the almost complete lack of progress by
the world's governments since the Kyoto Accords
of 1998.

But, as we've learned from The Global Financial Crisis,
the globe's elites are not going to get involved - unless
there's money to be made.

And, judging from the schemes floated at the summit,
there are plenty of ways for the Global Elite to continue
to plunder the rest of us.

Schemes like "Cap and Trade" and "Carbon Futures".
No doubt the Squid and the other investment banks will
be all over that. And "Carbon Taxes?' Just what the doctor
ordered for the recession-stricken populations of Europe and
the U.S. And of course, there are always plenty of "subsidies"
to be talked about - on the order of $100 Billion per year
by 2020 to poorer countries, to help them cope with
environmental degradation and the development of
alternate energy sources.

And how did this epic conference end? No Treaty, no
Binding Accord, but rather a three-page statement of
"glittering generalities", by which we will kick the can
down the road for another few years, and hope things
don't get too bad in the meantime.

Well, what about it? Just this - Global Warming is a Fact, and
in my opinion whether it is Entirely Anthropogenic or not
is immaterial.

Because the truth is, we live in a relatively narrow optimal
climate and temperature envelope. If we were to hold
Mean Global Temperature Increase to 2 degrees Celsius
over the next twenty years, we might have a chance on
stabilizing things, and even reversing the long-term trend.

But, we've got to be careful here - any secular long-term
cooling trend of 2 degrees C. or more, and we're headed
toward a Little Ice Age in as few as two hundred years.

The bottom line is this - human existence depends upon
maintaining long-term mean global temperatures of
between 28 and30 C. Any higher or lower than that,
and you've got problems.

And how did the Climate Follies address the issue?
By alternately ignoring it and protesting it. The
"Emerging Markets" nations, seeing their low-wage,
low-regulation advantage over the advanced countries
about to be regulated away, stonewalled.

China, which accounts for an astounding 44% of coal-derived
greenhouse gas emissions, said it will continue to build
coal-fired power plants, as it "studies" the issue. India
also deferred action. Brazil, which has contributed hugely
to the problem though decades of deforestation, will tackle
the problem - if it gets subsidies from the rich nations to
do so.

So what are we in the U.S. to do? I would say that until
the U.N. Climate Conference can get better organized,
maybe we should just do what we are already doing -
moving gradually away from petroleum-based motor
fuels, getting away from coal for power generation, and
moving toward natural gas, renewables and (yes)
nuclear power for the long term.

Even de-industrialization and offshoring have helped -
by dismantling our industrial base and shipping it
to China India, Korea and Mexico, we've made our
industrial pollution problem someone else's.

Remember, it's better to be unemployed, poverty-stricken
and environmentally pure than otherwise.

Who says mass unemployment can't benefit somebody?

Look for our "elites" to be telling us that around
election time, when we ask about re-industrialization
and "onshoring" jobs back to the United States.

"Can't be Done" - they'll say. "Global Warming" and all that.

Really? Well, I suppose we'll just have to make things a
little warmer for you.

What's the "Carbon Footprint" of Pitchforks and Torches?

Health Care Reform: Are We There Yet?

It seems to have taken nearly forever, but at last the Senate
seems ready to move on Health Care Reform.

After thirteen straight hours of negotiation with holdout
Democratic Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska, it appears the
Senate's version of Health Care Reform is ready for a final vote.

After reconciliation with the House version, the plan is to
present this to President Obama for signature immediately
after the Holiday recess.

But, after considering the final product of all this effort,
I'm beginning to wonder if this whole exercise was
really worthwhile.

To be sure, there are some nominal reforms in the bill.
Health care coverage will be extended to some thirty million
people now uninsured. Health Insurance companies will no
longer be able to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions.
Nor will they be allowed to deny claims for illnesses contracted
while covered. Annual and lifetime caps on coverage will
be eliminated, caps and ceilings will be put on premiums,
and premium subsidies will be made available for lower-income
workers to afford coverage.

Well, on the surface it does sound like an improvement.
But, as usual, the devil is in the details. And, after studying the
details of this bill, in my opinion it would be better if it did not pass.

Let's take a look at the first so-called "reform" - the extension
of coverage to the thirty million currently uninsured.
This will be accomplished by "mandating" that these individuals
purchase coverage, or pay a fine.

Now, when it comes to a mandate, I'm all in favor of
"mandating" that people be covered by such things as
social security. Social security is a universal coverage
government benefit program, and the premiums for it are
handled through the tax system.

But I have a real problem forcing people people to spend
after-tax dollars on private health insurance that is subject
to no meaningful cost controls or competitive constraints.
That provision, however desirable it might be, may not survive
the legal challenges it will undoubtedly attract from conservatives.

But wait - aren't there other provisions in the bill that we might
consider reform? How about the ban on denying coverage for
pre-existing conditions?

Well, let's see. As written, the bill contains no fines,
penalties, or enforcement mechanisms to punish insurance
companies wrongfully denying coverage. That means that the
insurers will "handle" pre-existing conditions by raising
premiums so high that no one would sign up unless one
consented to "exclude" the pre-existing condition.
To my mind,that's not reform.

The same situation applies to lifetime and annual "caps"
on coverage. No enforcement mechanisms - only vague
statements of intent. You don't have to be a rocket scientist
to figure out how the insurance companies will get around
that one. The same thing applies to the ban on dropping
coverage once you get sick.

Without enforcement - and the regulatory and
administrative apparatus to support it - nothing will
happen except the Health Care Cartel will gain thirty
million additional customers at whatever prices it
chooses to charge.

Now, let's look at what's not in the bill. First of all,
No Public Option. Without a universally available Public Option,
the Health Cartel will face no competitive pressure and no
restrictions on its profitability.

And no "early eligibility" for Medicare either. This modest
reform, first proposed in these pages three months ago,
would have dropped the eligibility age for Medicare from
65 to 55 under certain circumstances.

This reform I felt made a lot of sense. It would have removed
many of the chronically ill (and those likely to fall ill), from
insurance company rolls and thus actually helped insurance
company profitability. In my proposal, I would have dropped
eligibility immediately to age 59-1/2, and gradually extended
eligibility downward to 50 over a period of years.

This could have been done, championed as a major reform,
and set the stage for the eventual adoption of the only reform
that makes sense for an advanced country - single payer,
universal coverage. But what happened? It was floated up
only long enough to get rid of the public option -and then
it disappeared.

And cost controls on pharmaceuticals? That didn't even
make it to Congress - it was killed in a private,
campaign-contribution laden agreement between the
White House and the Pharmaceutical
lobby.

To sum up, then, about the only thing in this bill is
thirty million new customers for the Health Care Cartel - and
nothing else that can't either be bargained away in the
House-Senate conference or dropped later.

No wonder Wall Street - that other great bastion of the
people's well-being - sent the stocks of the Health Insurance
and Pharmaceutical companies to 52-week highs.

And that seals it for me. If Wall Street thinks that this is a
great idea, it almost certainly isn't good for the country.

Sometimes, no deal is better than a bad one.

And this is a bad deal for the American Public. It contains
no meaningful coverage or cost reforms. What we'll wind up
with is less care, more costs, and more profit and bonus dollars
in the hands of an undeserving CEO class, wrung out of an
impoverished and increasingly destitute and desperate
citizenry.

Mr. President, on Health Care Reform, We Aren't There Yet.

Scrap this bill - and start over.

The New Unemployment Numbers: Green Shoots?

Are those "Green Shoots" finally poking up through the snow?

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we may have finally
turned the corner on Unemployment.

In its monthly statistical report released Friday, the
number of "jobs lost" in November was a mere 11,000,
while the overall unemployment rate declined from
10.2% to 10.0%.

Judging by the response, the mainstream media and
the financial Powers That Be were falling all over themselves
in self-congratulation that the "Worst is Behind Us".

The irrepressible (and in my mind completely irresponsible)
Jim Cramer was celebrating the end of the "Jobless Recovery",
along with the usual self-serving promoters and shills in the
chorus.

The Administration also took this as signs that
"its policies are working" and started thumping the tubs
for its "Employment Summit" later this week.

To all of those with a stake in the status quo, things
couldn't be looking better. And those with an immediate
stake in some economic good news, like embattled Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke, started grasping at this
straw with the hope of a drowning man clinging to driftwood.

But the question does remain - have we turned a corner?
Or is this merely a statistical aberration? Or, as the conspiracy
theorists have it, have these numbers been doctored to achieve
a certain outcome?

My take on the above: No, Yes, and Maybe.

On the first question, "have we at last turned the corner?"
my vote is No.

To begin with, this remarkable decline in the rate of job
loss is unconfirmed by any other statistical measure.
Hours worked for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing
employees is up from 33.0 hours per week to an anemic 33.1 ,
well below full employment numbers and well within
the range of statistical error.

Other measures of economic activity - rail and trucking carloads,
inventories, and new orders - are flat to slightly down.
Thus, this remarkable piece of "good news", while welcome,
has to stand as unconfirmed by any other measure.

In fact, if you want to take a very pessimistic stance and
drill down a little bit, the complementary statistics for
unemployment are as dim as ever. The percentage of
"counted" unemployed that have been unemployed longer
than 36 weeks (9 months) is 38.6% of all unemployed - the
highest number in 25 years. And while the number of those
unemployed for less then 9 weeks has dropped
significantly (from 15.3% of total unemployed to 11.6%)
over the last three months, the other Quartile measurements
of unemployment duration have been growing.

What does this mean? It means that people, once unemployed,
are moving to the ranks of the long-term unemployed - and
staying there. This is also also confirmed by the broad measure
of unemployment U6, which counts the unemployed,
the discouraged, and the crucially important "unemployment
effect of reduced hours" (i.e. for every four people cut back from
40 hours to 32, add one to the "currently unemployed" head count).

That number remains a depressing 17.2%.

Which brings up the second question - is this miraculous
Unemployment figure a statistical aberration?
I think we can safely say Yes.

To begin with, any raw count of U3 (the official
unemployment rate), has a Mean Statistical Error
of +/- 100,000. This number has remained very consistent,
even adjusting for its dependent variables labor force size
and labor force participation rate. So, allowing for error,
the true number could be anywhere from -11,000 to -111,000,
depending upon sample size and methodology, both of which
the BLS is free to alter at any time.

Further, when you take into account Seasonal adjustment,
which normally adjusts LFS (labor force size) and LFPR
(labor force participation rate) upward to account for seasonal
Holiday retail and shipping employment, this purportedly good
report is skewed further.

So, to confirm whether or not this "good news " is real,
I'm going to look at a proxy for the BLS numbers - The ADP
payrolls report, which measures an approximation of U3 through
payroll rather than household data.

The ADP numbers for November? Job Loss = -169,800
(still dismal, but improving), with a Holiday Seasonal
adjustment of +52,000.

Conclusion? Statistical and seasonal aberration most likely,
with all numbers within allowed statistical error.

Finally, we come to the "Conspiracy Theorist" outlook,
most frequently bandied about by websites such as
Zero Hedge, Naked Capitalism, Calculated Risk, and others.

Basically, the "conspiracy" meme runs like this - The
Administration, Congress, The Fed, and the TBTF banks
(most prominently Goldman Sachs), were going to drastically
cook the November unemployment numbers to mislead the people.
And on the surface, there's some justification for this.

The forecasters were predicting that retailers were facing
the worst Holiday retail season in a generation. More retail
chain bankruptcies were predicted for the first quarter of 2010,
with all the attendant negative fallout for employment and
commercial real estate.

That's not what the Powers That Be want to hear, goes
the theory, so watch for an "October Surprise" - namely,
unemployment numbers that would be miraculously
optimistic, in order to goose consumer spending.

Did that happen? In my opinion - Maybe, but only because
this relatively meaningless statistical improvement has
been flogged beyond all credibility as being "positive" by
mainstream media types who should know better.

Even Goldman Sachs - the hated Squid - put out its
November expectations as an improving
(but still negative) -101,000, with a qualifier to not
expect much improvement in the first or second
quarters of 2010.

This, in my mind, is consistent with the other data.

So - in conclusion? Things are still bad, but slowly getting
less so, and the economy will continue to bounce along
the bottom for the next several months.

Now that is not good news, for the politicians especially - but
we'll cover that later. And as for the "Green Shoots?"

Relax, they're not here yet.

Tiger Woods: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Tomcat

It's been an interesting week for followers of Celebrity
Gossip.

This time, it's golfs' Mr. Clean - Tiger Woods - who's
caught up in the latest "Who's been sleeping with who"
media frenzy.

Tiger, my man, what's up with that?

First of all, there was the mysterious car crash
outside your house at 2:30 am.

Next, there was the ambulance ride to the hospital
to be treated for cuts, bruises and lacerations.

Finally, the refusal to talk to the authorities, until
your PR and legal people could damp things down.

Tiger, for a professional athlete, this whole thing
has been a PR nightmare and a potential legal and
financial disaster. For someone whose judgment
on the golf course has been so good, this is the kind
of misstep we might expect of a Tour Rookie.

First of all, if you're going to Tomcat around,
you take some basic precautions.

And one of the first ones is to NOT have your
girlfriends on the cell phone speed dial.

That's how Elin found out. She went through
your phone and found Rachel, Jaimee and Kaliqua.

Next, she hired a "Private Detective to the Stars"
and found out quite a bit.

Like you had Rachel flown out to Australia for the
Australian Masters, and that you later sent her on
to Dubai, of all places, with some cash for her time
and trouble. She also found out that you'd been seeing her
for quite some time, and that you've paid her over $ 1m
for her time and silence.

And just who is Rachel Uchitel? A thirtyish sometime
model and professional bicoastal party girl, previously
linked to Derek Jeter and Manny Ramirez.

Next, she found out about Jaimee Grubbs, a sometime
cocktail waitress and medical marijuana dealer from LA.
Seems she's about to cash in on her fifteen minutes of
fame with a million-dollar tell-all to the tabloids and
a nude photo shoot.

And then, there's Kaliqua Moquin - a statuesque Las Vegas
nightclub hostess, well known as the "Diva" of Las Vegas'
overpriced and under-regulated nightclub scene. She's
been all over the media with stories about champagne and
cocaine-fueled bacchanalia on your very frequent
solo visits to Las Vegas, where, according to her ,
you've also dropped quite a bit at the tables as well.

And her former boyfriends? Rappers Jay-Z, Li'l Wayne
and Eminem.

PGA Tour, meet Da Hood.

Wow - sex, drugs, and gambling. No wonder Elin took a
3-iron upside your head before you tried to get away
in the Escalade.

So, now that's its all out in the open, what do you do?
You need to take charge.

First of all, you should talk to your off-season friends who've
been caught up in the same thing. Guys like Kobe Bryant
and David Letterman.

Kobe will tell you it will not be cheap. Vanessa got $5 million
in cash upfront and a large upgrade in the prenup. Letterman
also had to fork over to the wife big time. And since Elin has
already talked to her friend Vanessa Bryant about how to
handle things, you can expect to pay up several million
immediately, and upgrade the pre-nup as well.

Hey, it's par for the course - don't complain. And since the
thrashing by Elin's 3-iron was nothing compared to the
world-class ass-chewing you got from your own mother,
carrying on about shame, embarrassment and loss of face,
you need to make right with Wife, Mother, and
Mother-In-Law (all of whom live with you - yikes) and
then get your story out in a friendly forum.

And I know just the guy. You know him too.
You need to call Jim Rome and either go on his
radio show (for a whole show including call-ins)
or go on ESPN's Rome is Burning.

Romey has been all over this all week, but mostly
in a sympathetic vein.

So break off a call to Jay Stew the phone slap, and
go on the show. You've been in The Jungle before,
so you know what to expect. Tough love - but love
nonetheless.

And next season, be all business. Get those majors.
And since I expect Elin, your Mother, and your
Mother-In-Law to be "chaperoning" you on tour,
just suck it up and take care of business.

Both your game and your life will be the better for it.

In the meantime, here's a couple of things from
YouTube for my reader's enjoyment: