The last round of Republican primaries has established
one thing:
Don't Underestimate the Power of Palin !
Unlike any other Republican figure, Sarah Palin has proven
beyond doubt to have the "endorsement power" that excites
voters and gets them to the polls.
The Great Corporatist Mitt Romney doesn't have this power.
Neither do Mike Huckabee nor Tim Pawlenty.
After this last round, the Palin endorsement scoreboard is 20 Wins,
10 losses - a 67% winning percentage. That's good ball in any game.
But when we go behind the raw figures and dig down
into the details, it gets even more impressive. Most of the
Palin-endorsed primary victories were won by Tea Party
backed candidates; most of the losses were candidates
backed by the Republican "Establishment". And this last fact
is something you will not find in the Mainstream media, with
the possible exception of Fox News.
Which leads one to ask the question: "Why did Sarah Palin
waste her endorsement power on Establishment candidates?"
Answer: Sarah Palin is a serious politician, who will either
win the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination or decide who
does. To get that power, she needs to get political IOU's from
her party's mainstream, not just the "Tea Party".
And, as the GOP's hottest commodity, she can literally
make or break a candidacy with her support.
Think that's a little extreme? Just ask soon-to-be-ousted Senator
Lisa Murtkowski (R-AK), who lost to Palin and Tea Party
endorsed candidate Joe Miller.
Until two months ago, Sen. Murtkowski was the picture of
an untouchable Establishment Republican. The daughter of
former Governor Frank Murtkowski (whom Palin defeated
for Governor in 2006), Sen. Murtkowski had $10 million
in the bank, was 20 points ahead in the polls, and was
cruising toward re-election. Then Palin and the Tea Party
stepped in.
While Palin endorsed candidate Miller and recorded
messages for him, Husband Todd and the Tea Party
sprang into action. Going door-to-door and village-to-
village in Alaska's remoteness, The Tea Party and Todd
Palin won the day for Joe Miller - and the reverberations
were felt all around the country, most especially in Washington
D.C.
Message delivered: If you are an Establishment GOP incumbent,
and Sarah Palin opposes you, you are not safe. And if you are
too closely identified with the GOP "Establishment", a Sarah
Palin endorsement may not save you.
And the details bear this out. Of the fifteen House Candidates
endorsed by Sarah Palin, 9 won and 6 lost. Of the winners,
seven were Tea Party Candidates, and only two were from
the "Establishment". Of the losers, two were Tea Party and
four were "establishment" - including three incumbents.
On the Senate side, the results were a little more evenly
divided. Two "establishment" Palin-endorsed candidates
won (Carly Fiorina in California and John McCain in Arizona),
two Tea Party candidates lost (in Washington and Kansas),
and Tea Party bright lights Sharron Angle(Nevada) and Rand Paul
(Kentucky) won (and are expected to win in the general election),
with the help of Sarah Palin's endorsement.
And with the always important Governor's races, Sarah made the
difference in at least four of the nine contests she endorsed, saving
establishment candidates Susanna Martinez in New Mexico and
Mary Fallin in Oklahoma, as well as engineering the dramatic
come-from-behind win of Nikki Haley in South Carolina.
Yes, that Nikki Haley - the daughter of Indian immigrants whom
a GOP Establishment figure called a "raghead" in public.
Bottom line - when Sarah Palin makes her run for the White House
in 2012, she'll have an awful lot of folks in the GOP, both in the
"establishment" and out, who will owe her big time.
And in getting her "IOU's" in early, on both sides of the GOP,
she's following in the proven footsteps of the Greatest
Conservative of our Age, the 40th President, Ronald Reagan.
And she's looking and sounding more and more like The Gipper
every day.